Thursday, Dec 31, 2009

Wednesday, Dec 30, 2009

Tuesday, Dec 29, 2009

Monday, Dec 28, 2009

Thursday, Dec 24, 2009

Wednesday, Dec 23, 2009

Tuesday, Dec 22, 2009

Monday, Dec 21, 2009

Friday, Dec 18, 2009

Thursday, Dec 17, 2009

Wednesday, Dec 16, 2009

Tuesday, Dec 15, 2009

Monday, Dec 14, 2009

Friday, Dec 11, 2009

Thursday, Dec 10, 2009

Wednesday, Dec 9, 2009

Tuesday, Dec 8, 2009

Monday, Dec 7, 2009

Friday, Dec 4, 2009

Thurs, Dec 3, 2009

Market thoughts for Dec 2

Market will attempt to break above resistance today, we'll see if it has enough momentum to push it through or not

Market thoughts for Dec 1

With the gap up this morning, my sell signal is now invalidated

Market thoughts for Nov 30

Back from NYC

Sold my SPY puts this morning to pay for the trip but still have positions in inverse ETF's for IT trades. These position were put on last Monday when the expected gap up triggered my limit orders

Market thoughts for Nov 23-27

I will be in NYC next week celebrating with Atilla the last day before the beginning of THE END.

So, do feel free to share your market thoughts here in my absence and happy holiday to all of you here in the U.S.A.

Market thoughts for Nov 20

After an early morning weakness, we should see a rally in the second half of the day

Market thoughts for Nov 19

ES is closing this past Monday's gap this morning. We should see support at 1085-1090 area.

Market thoughts for Nov 18

Probably a flat to a small down day today with an ES range of 1100-1112

Market thoughts for Nov 17

The dollar is adding pressure on the market this morning, but ES should find support around 1100-1102 area

Market thoughts for Nov 16

After the gap up this morning, the market should trade sideway the rest of the day

Market thoughts for Nov 13

Expecting an early morning weakness and a recovery toward the end of the day

Market thoughts for Nov 12

Probably another narrow range day like yesterday

Market thoughts for Nov 11

The minor consolidation that I talked about yesterday only lasted for a day, up up and away we go.

BTW, keep an eye on the profile picture. So far, OBG's El Toro and Swinger's S&T are both on the right side of the trends ......... :-)

Market thoughts for Nov 10

Expecting a minor consolidation for a day or two to correct the current overbought condition after bouncing off the S&T's IT Primary Trend support last week.

Market thoughts for Nov 9

Market jumped the creek this morning over critical resistance. Keep an eye on S&T's next ST target as the next resistance level.

Market thoughts for Nov 6

ES was rejected at resistance area in the AH as noted by Swinger and MACT yesterday and this morning rebounding at Swinger's ST Primary Trend Line. WTG guys

Market thoughts for Nov 5

Expecting another attempt to test Swinger's S&T ST Primary Trend level. My humble guess is this level will be taken out either today or tomorrow.

Market thoughts for Nov 4

Market continues to rally today..............next target should be Swinger's ST Primary Trend level

Market thoughts for Nov 3

Market should continues to rally today after the early morning weakness

Market thoughts for Nov 2

Expecting the oversold rally to start today

Market thoughts for Oct 30

The target of this rally (ES 1060-1070) was achieved yesterday and will be continue into today.
The key today is to watch how the market reacts at Swinger's ST Primary Trend number

Market thoughts for Oct 29

Here comes the dead cat bounce for 1-2 days to relief the oversold condition and end of the month rally. Target of this rally is 1060-1070's

Market thoughts for Oct 28

The market trend is down as confirmed by Swinger's S&T system. I expect a dead cat bounce for a day or two to relief the current oversold condition before the continuation to the downside.

Market thoughts for Oct 27

Expecting a small up day today, estimated ES range is 1061-1071

Market thoughts for Oct 26

Estimated ES range today is 1076-1084

BTW, judging by the restaurant prices there is no recession in Las Vegas .... :-D

Market thoughts for Oct 23

1099 should be tested today. My best guess is we could be getting a new top spotter soon

Market thoughts for Oct 22

Estimated ES range today is 1072-1083

Market thoughts for Oct 21

Estimated ES range today is 1090- 1076

Market thoughts for Oct 20

Estimated ES range today is 1099-1088

Market thoughts for Oct 19

Estimated ES range today is 1092-1083

Market thoughts for Oct 16

Yesterday I expected an intra day reversal today and looks like it was accomplished during the after hour trading last night. I think today we will see a VST top with a ST higher high top next week.

Market thoughts for Oct 15

Estimated ES range today is 1087-1074

Market thoughts for Oct 14

The market is getting overextended, a correction is due. I do not know where that level is, but timing wise my best guess is sometimes this week.

I do not think this is The Top, or a Crash that is around the corner. I do think it will be a normal correction (50-100 ES pts) within a bull market since the March bottom.

Market thoughts for Oct 13

I think today will be another rotational day with an ES range of 1074-1064

Market thoughts for Oct 12

Swinger's top spotter was invalidated in the AH trading this morning. My own analysis calls for a significant pullback in the next 2 days.

For those who missed last Friday's post, Swinger's trading system is now available online. Please check last Friday's post for more detail.

Market thoughts for Oct 9

Estimated ES range today is 1064-1057

Market thoughts for Oct 8

Today's estimated ES range is 1065-1055

Market thoughts for Oct 7

Estimated ES range today is 1057-1042

Market thoughts for Oct 6

Expecting an attempt to test the next resistance at the ES 1050's

Market thoughts for Oct 5

For knife catchers, today may be a good day to put on a counter trend long preparing for "Turnaround Tuesday" tomorrow

Market thoughts for Oct 2

Given the market's oversold condition, my guess is the recovery will start Monday.

Market thoughts for Oct 1

Expecting ES to retest of yesterday's low at 1042

Market thoughts for Sept 30

Estimated ES range today is 1065-1055

Market thoughts for Sept 29

Looks like the 1061 resistance level was taken out in the AH. I think the next target is the top rail of The Swinger Channel

Market thoughts for Sept 28

After early morning weakness, I expect the market to trade higher today. Estimated ES range today is 1040-1052

Market thoughts for Sept 25

Expecting a small up day today consolidating the losses in the last 2 days.

Best wishes to Swinger and hope he recovers soon.

Market thoughts for Sept 24

Nothing has changed........ expecting a post Fed day reversal today

Market thoughts for Sept 23

No need for me to tell you guys the market will trade around the FOMC announcement at 2:15EST today. Most traders are expecting a rally, think I might take the other side of the trade today.

Market thoughts for Sept 22

As stated yesterday, the lack of follow through after the early morning weakness invalidated the negative bias I had yesterday.

I expect the market will continue to trade within Swinger's trading range, no need trying to figure out which direction the market will break in the coming weeks.

Market thoughts for Sept 21

Estimated ES range today is 1058-1050

Market thoughts for Sept 18

Estimated ES range today is 1070-1057

Market thoughts for Sept 17

Expecting a VST top today. I will attempt to enter a ST short probe for a countertrend trade while keeping in mind all 3 of swinger's trends are still up.

Market thoughts for Sept 16

Once again Master Swinger is correct saying when ES takes out 1035, it will quickly moves to its next higher target level.

My prediction today is.....certain poster at another blog will backdate his trades and claimed he was stopped out yesterday morning on his shorts....: )

Market thoughts for Sept 15

Expecting a small down day today (shooting star) as part of the consolidation process of recent gains

Market thoughts for Sept 14

Expecting to see a narrow trading range today ES 1038-1028

Market thoughts for Sept 11

Today is the day the bulls are guarantee to win ..........welcome to 9/11 up day

Market thoughts for Sept 10

Haha, ES did rally to 1038's yesterday but it can't get there in the regular trading hours and had to do it in the AH

BTW, 1038 is swinger's number so all credit goes to the professor..... :-)

Market thoughts for Sept 9

Today could be the day the market will challenge the previous high @ ES 1038

Market thoughts for Sept 8

Today's estimated ES range is 1021-1031

Market thoughts for Sept 4

Forget about the employment numbers, today is already a good day because swinger is back with us

Market thoughts for Sept 3

Holiday trading starts today, expecting low volume and market trending up today and tomorrow. I expect to see ES 1010-1013 by tomorrow.

Market thoughts for Sept 2

Another down day is possible, but I think the most likely scenario is a dead cat bounce reversal today

Market thoughts for Sept 1

Expecting a small unchange day today. Estimated range is 1010-1025

Market thoughts for Aug 31

Another great update from swinger today

Market thoughts for Aug 28

Today is the day the market breaking out of the current trading range heading toward its next ES target of 1050's

Market thoughts for Aug 27

Estimated ES range today is 1014-1026

Market thoughts for Aug 26

Forecast for today's ES range is 1020-1032

Market thoughts for Aug 25

The market is showing more strength than I expected today. Either this is a fake out or ES is heading toward the 1050's area.

Market thoughts for Aug 24

Expecting a small narrow trading range day today. Range for ES today is 1035-1025

Market thoughts for Aug 21

As I stated yesterday, I expect today to take out yesterday's high. I will attempt to take a short between ES 1015-1020's area

Market thoughts for Aug 20

ES crossed over the 1000's level again today as expected. I think at a minimum ES will retest the 1012-1015's area. Like what swinger has reminded us couple of days ago, all trends (ST, IT, LT) are up until proven otherwise.

Market thoughts for Aug 19

Be sure to read a very nice commentary by MACT at Xtrends

Market thoughts for Aug 18

SPX 980 holds as expected, but the key is the strength of the rally to determine if this is just a pause to go higher or the beginning of the long expected correction

Market thoughts for Aug 17

Don't know if last week was THE TOP, but at a minimum a consolidation similar to the one we saw in June is on its way

Taking the week off

I will be out the rest of the week (Aug 11-14), but feel free to continue to post here and I will try to check in and post my comments whenever I can

Market thoughts for Aug 10

Expecting a quiet flat day today. Breaking ES 990 will be a red flag for me

Market thoughts for Aug 7

Gap up this morning as I predicted yesterday

Market thoughts for Aug 6

Expecting weakness in the morning and strength toward the close with today's ES range of 991-1005

Market thoughts for Aug 5

Shorted ES at 1005.25 this morning

Market thoughts for Aug 4

Today I am expecting a small unchange day. Depending on the close today, I may take a position in anticipation of a bigger move tomorrow.

Market thoughts for Aug 3

If you get a chance, please go read an excellent commentary by MACT at Atilla's blog at Xtrends

Market thoughts for July 31

No big selloff this morning and no island reversal this morning as some traders suggested yesterday at the close.

Market thoughts for July 30

Sell signal is invalidated today, will have to wait for the next sell setup. My best guess at this point is sometimes in early to mid Aug, but we will let the market decide for us.

Market thoughts for July 29

My technical model gave a sell signal yesterday meaning risk takers can take a short position here front running the market, while conservative traders can wait for sell confirmation before taking the short trade

Market thoughts for July 28

Expecting a small consolidation day today with a narrow trading range

Market thoughts for July 27

Looks and feels toppy after 2 strong weeks of rally, but I will not take any IT shorts until the market confirms its downturn.

Market thoughts for July 24

**Warning to the Bears**

The top I was looking for in the 960's-970's area is "A top" and it may not be "The Top", so do be careful when you are trading put options and triple beta ETF's.

I will try my best to identify "The Top" to you when the time comes. Once the market tops out, you will have plenty of time to put on your trades so no need to take unnecessary risk and drawdowns to front run this market.

Market thoughts for July 23

SPX finally breaking out of resistance today heading toward the 960-970's area. I am now on high alert for a possible top in the next 2 days.

Please keep in mind picking tops is a dangerous game, so be sure to have your stops in place when the market is right and we are wrong with our analysis.

Market thoughts for July 22

SPX is trading near the June high area, so I expect either a pullback here or most likely a false breakout in the next few days to the 960's-970's area before a real top is put in

Market thoughts for July 21

We should see a one day reversal today, follow by couple days of rally into ES 970's

Market thoughts for July 20

Here we are at 950's, let's see what the market has in for us this week

Market thoughts for July 17

Should be a quiet non event OPEX today

Market thoughts for July 16

I expect today to be a small down to an unchange day, but I do expect yesterday's high to be taken out today before reversing lower

Market thoughts for July 15

ES met my minimum objective this morning at 920's. I expect a minor pullback at this level and then the next target is at the 950's area.

Market thoughts for July 14

With yesterday's market liftoff, the ST momentum is now switch from down to up.

Today the market will probably consolidate yesterday's gains before resuming the rally for the rest of the week.

Market thoughts for July 13

The market should be up this week, but the set up is not there to rally today.

I expect market weakness early in the week, and the reversal could come as early as tomorrow

Market thoughts for July 10

Estimated ES range today is 870's -888

Market thoughts for July 9

Everything lined up for an up day today

Estimated ES range today is 893-875

Market thoughts for July 8

Expecting an up day today.

ES should rally from 880's to 900's, and TF from 480's to 495's in the next couple of days

Market thoughts for July 7

Today look for an early morning weakness and then a strong closed by the end of the day

Ideal reversal levels for the ES is around 884-887's area

Market thoughts for July 6

ES should find support at the 882-885's area, look for a rally back above the 900's area in the next 2 days

Market thoughts for July 2

Given today's trend day decline, SPX will likely revisit the lower end of the trading range at 880 and can go as low as 860's by mid July before consolidating and make another rally attempt to the 940's-950's area by early Aug.

Market thoughts for July 1

Market held important support yesterday and will attempt to break current ST resistance either today or tomorrow on its way to the SPX 950's area as stated in the previous post

Thoughts of the day

SPX 930's is a natural resistance area, but I still think the market is trading in a range of 950's-880.

Are we in a topping process, I think the answer is Yes.

Has the market topped out yet, I think the answer to that question is.......we will know in the next 2 weeks

SPX should challenge the 940- 950's area either this week or next